Sec. John Kerry's wasted visit

John Kerry's wasted visit.

I think I'm getting old, if not I wouldnt have felt the surprise visit by John kerry was going to be meaningful.
I wont say I'm surprised though, he got appointed after senator Clinton couldnt stomach Obamas cloudy foreign policies and resigned. 
I expected him to call for the postponement of this election seeing that INEC is ill prepared and the tension way too much for a credible elections to hold.

The APC believe they have the numbers to win but are not taking into calculations how many of the people sympayhetic to them can vote. 3 weeks to the elections, there are still so many undecided voters. 

Aside that, the threat of war looms irrespective of the winner.
instead he came and in a condescending manner says the election holding will prevent violence?! Does that man actually have access to CIA security briefings or he came here to ensure Nigeria erupts in violence?

Does General Buhari have control over the street urchins and youths who unleashed mayhem in 2011 or does President Jonathan have control over the niger delta militants who few months ago barred him from stepping into the creeks?

So of what significance is the Abuja peace accord that cant be enforced? Or wasnt it after the accord the stonings and killings picked up pace?

The words of Sec. John Kerry were bereft of wisdom Or what do you make of the threat of denial of visas to any Nigerian deemed to have contributed to any unrest? And saying the US will keep sabotaging our fight against boko haram if there is post election violence! 

His visit here and his utterances were not in Nigerias best intetest.

What do you think?

Much ado about GO...and 2015 by Opeyemi Oduwole

Much ado about GO...and 2015! 

If it is indeed true that Pastors Adeboye and Oyedepo were key figures in trying to broker peace between OBJ and GEJ, then I'm really sorry.... Cause I remember quite vividly during the fuel subsidy rallies when some human right activists appealed to both Adeboye and Oyedepo to please use their voices in joining the people's yearning the PR dept of both churches went on full blast that the GOs should not be dragged into politics despite the fact that it is same people suffering that forms their congregation. 
But now that elections are abound, I wonder what the defense will be - as response to this 'un-clandestine' meeting in Abeokuta earlier this week. As far as I'm concerned these GOs were, and have always, been involved in politics but only choose to look the other way when they are being called to stay on the side of the masses. Their silence during the fuel subsidy saga was loud enough to show the smart minds whose side they were. 
Love them or hate them, I give kudos to Oritsejafor and Tunde Bakare for (at least) not hiding their political affiliations. The only difference is that one is a fraud and the other is a nation builder - my personal opinion anyway and have no apologies for that. I leave you to decide which is which. 
Whilst the dogmatic tendencies will not let many be objective as to the roles of religious leaders in the society. Can I please remind all that names like Mother Theresa, Desmond Tutu, Rev Martin Luther King, St Francis of Assisi - and many more continues to be alive and will perhaps live forever, not because of their clerical activities but for staying in the right side of history. 
We will tell our children and grandchildren of our spiritual leaders that abandoned us when our stomach is empty, we will also tell them about those spiritual fathers who stayed silent in the face of mammoth corruption and those who walked shoulder to shoulder with us in the days of struggle. We shall relay the names of Tunde Bakare, Tony Rapu, Alhaji Abdulrahman Amodu and few others that weren't ashamed to be seen or speak for the common man 

Therefore the never-objective people may continue to defend the indefensible whilst the GOs continue to fly private jets to the detriment of the members of the society they are called to defend. I dare say their 15 minutes of fame will soon be over. Who remembers Jesu Oyingbo today? Who remembers Partick Anwuzia today? Where is Sha Mashad today? I say they are all in oblivionosphere!

2015 elections Myth or Reality - Choose your warlord?

2015 elections Myth or Reality
Choose your warlord?

Read part 1 here 2015 Elections - GEJ the last Nigerian President?

Ret. General Buhari now famously called the peoples general has emerged the APC presidential candidate.  
Prof Osinbajo an active RCCG pastor in a master stroke from APC has emerged his running mate. With the calculation that it would pacify the christians which was necessary in no small part as an effective online campaign and otherwise forgiveable gaffes from Gen Buhari had painted him as a religious fundamentalist (with the singular goal of foistering sharia on the whole country). 

Even down right lies were added to this gaffes and in Nigeria it takes years for the truth to catch up with lies.

Such lies however have not been the exclusive preserve of the PDP camp but lies have also been spun in no small measure by the APC camp.

Even at that, the lies remain the weakest weapon in the arsenal of these two behemoths. 

The abuses going on round the supporters however are even more worrisome.  
Name callings by the supposed educated grassroot supporters who campaign and vent online.
Same by the prominent supporters who are allies of the two main candidates all sounding war cries.

Reports of northerners refusing to serve in GEJ campaign team, the absence of GEJ posters in the north. The threat of fire and brimstone by northern elites if Buhari loses (the events of post 2011 election in the north remains fresh in our minds). 
As at last week, drivers were afraid to drive branded Jonathan/Sambo buses from Kaduna to Kano fearing attacks. The buses were later driven by soldiers under armed guards to their destination, how it would be used without attacks is another thing.

And if we go by the threat coming from Asari Dokubo to start a war on the southwest if GEJ loses the election and we add that to the purported recent purchase of warships by Mr Government Tompolo then such threats should be taken seriously considering the fact that Lagos is accessible by sea and an attack can be launched using these warships. It is also a fact that arms remain readily available and in use in the Niger delta.

Mr President is known to be quiet in matters he should have spoken up about and he has not said anything concerning the warships nor the threat of war on Nigeria if he loses which I take as a taciturn approval by him.

Few days ago it was reported he went visiting James Ibori in prison in the UK.
Are the drums of war already beating?
Is it time for us to choose our warlords or can we still salvage the situation?

Election in the NE?

With the threats and venom from Buharis supporters in the north matched with that of his supporters in other parts (but with that of the north taken more serious because of post 2011 election violence) the likelihood of election taking place there is nil! 

If PDP or GEJ cannot campaign freely in the NE, then Buharis supporters have unwittingly created a loop hole for the cancellation of election there because elections cannot be adjudged to have been free and fair! And thus GEJ stays in power till elections can be conducted fairly!

If the election is cancelled in many states in the North and winner determined on the votes in the rest of the country; the likely outcome would be a deadlock! And GEJ still stays in power. 

If elections go well in all states around the country, (though I am waiting for the miracle that will happen in the NE to make that possible) and Buhari wins then the SS who have weapons and warship start a war deprive the nation of access to crudeoil or Buhari loses and violence starts in the north.

In all my permutations,  violence is the common outcome! 

So is it time to choose our warlords or negotiate a settlement that will satisfy all parties? 

Our potential warlords - na hypothesis o!

GEJ If he wins; commands from the villa and or the creeks

Buhari; will have no money to prosecute a war and his cashcows would most likely cut their losses and flee the violence, however across the country fights will break out leading either to massacres or guerrilla warfare.


Tinubu; will attempt to hold on and control lagos which is the commercial capital of west africa and an oil producing state.

OBJ; will attempt to take command of the south west defence forces, he wont spend his money however but will be useful to the SW in terms of experience. 

Tompolo; who has been empowered for years, battle tested and smart. He will at first defer to the central niger delta defence forces but later branch out when he realizes he doesnt need to wait for orders when he controls all himself.  it will lead to further balkinization of the niger delta as other warlords striving for control over oil will spring up.


Dokubo; will be involved in a tripatite power struggle but will focus more on him living to reap from his investment outside the country.


IBB; with nothing to lose will be the major financier of the northern defence forces fighting on two fronts, against boko haram and pushing towards the niger delta to retake control of nigerias oil in conjuction with the south west and south east.


The Solution?

I have been advocating for a unity government comprising the ruling party and the opposition parties to be formed.

Many people do  not remember what led Pa Obj to prison, it was his clamoring for an Interim National Government instead of fighting alongside the country for the actualization of the June12 mandate.

The country was not this heated on ethnic lines and the Nigerian army had dignity and was still wearing the invincibility toga, right now all those has been lost.

There is ethnic and religious tension ahead of this general election, these are not mere words but people now have the financial capacity to start and sustain a war! case in point is Boko Haram.

So times are different, the country is weak and the stakes are high.

Lets explore a two year unity government that will solve the South South, the opposition and preservation of Nigeria equation. 
Above all this will buy the youths the time to find and prop up their own true agents of change, after all both these candidates have two common flaws, they have ruled and failed the nation before (judging by the state of the nation) and are part of the older generation that destroyed this same nation.

This solution will save this country and help the youth explore better candidates from a newer generation, above all it will usher in true change!

What do you think? 

2015 Elections: Myth or Reality?

GEJ the last nigerian president?

I have been watching the nigerian political scene with interest but rarely commenting partly because I see a sea of selfish ambitions in garbs of service to the nation but focused on looting.

I believed there was going to be an election in 2015 especially with the vigour that pro jonathan campaigners started the preparations for the 2015 presidential election using various groups.

I also watched as the North East slowly slipped a town at a time into absolute anarchy, when boko haram campaign picked up after the death of president Musa Yaradua, I watched as stuffs we hear happening in far away countries began happening here. 
I naively believed a Nigerian could never be a suicide bomber, it was the Arabs who could do such things until I started hearing of bomb blasts all over the north east and abuja. 

When it turned into a war, I had so much confidence in our soldiers to rout out these insurgents going by their track record of stopping the war in Liberia and Sierra leone. I believed the army just didn't want to appear brutal but alas I was wrong! 

Then the blame game started, as people died the politicians played the deaths for maximum political gains.  The religious bodies were not left out each group pointing accusing finger whilst ardents of all faiths got slaughtered.

Through all these macabre din, the electoral dance began, not like it ever stopped but it reached higher crescendo daily.  The peak was the NASS brouhaha at which point I stopped and viewed the whole system with my macroscope and realized, we are all just being taken for a huge ride, a long con, there cant possibly be an actual plan for any presidential election to take place in 2015!

Lets go back to the days of  SDP and NRC in which baba Maradona himself Gen IBB took us all on a merry go round of a phantom transition to civil rule.
I remember he first said people should form their parties which they did then after awhile he found an excuse, created two parties, drew up manifestos for both, built party offices throughout the country, organised primaries, there  was even debates on national tv which culminated in the freest and fairest elevtion in the history of nigeria and a yoruba man defeated tofa in his own state! 

Chief Abiola emerged the winner after 7 years of a long con only to die in prison because Ibb was actually taking us all on a ride! he planned for all to fail!

I remember that Chief gani fawehinmi was the lone voice who insisted and fought right from the start of the phantom transition saying Gen IBB had no plans to leave power!
Now yet again I see signs there will be no presidential election holding in 2015.

I will give you my reasons in the next series of this post.

2015 - The Bourdillon calculation

2015, The Bourdillon calculation.

So much tension over the coming election. Another crescendo is the supposed purchase of warships by Mr Government Tompolo. (How can someone's name be Government sef?) But pause first.

Lets talk about APC and the bourdillon calculation.
How do you wrest power from a ruling party when your own party is as corrupt if not more corrupt than the ruling one? Well you use the GMB formula!

Hold up a beacon, especially a self righteous  beacon so desperate for power he jettisons his own principles to go into alliance with people of questionable characters,  emergency progressives who two weeks ago were conservatives and will switch back if they dont get what they want.

Then use change as the mantra, people everywhere always want change and care less what kind of change; you know the way many car drivers would rather be moving than wait out a traffic jam even if the alternative route takes longer than the wait? Such is the mind of the people especially the undiscerning ones.

Ok so we have a beacon and a mantra, next phase is hire a company that can sell both


" Abuja – The All Progressives Congress (APC) said it has engaged the services of an international political consulting firm, AKPD Message and Media, “to boast its electoral chances in the upcoming elections’’.
The APC Interim National Publicity Secretary, Alhaji Lai Mohammed, said in a statement on Tuesday in Abuja that the U.S. firm has a strong reputation for supporting leading populist movements across the globe.
“As a party destined to bring change and succour to all Nigerians, APC is proud and excited to work with one of the foremost exponents of change in the world,’’ the statement said.
It said that the Chicago-based firm was best known for its leading role in President Barack Obama’s presidential campaigns in 2008 and 2012." More at http://www.vanguardngr.com/2014/02/2015-elections-apc-hires-foreign-consultant/

And if you are in doubt , according to wikipedia "AKPD's advertising and strategy have been widely credited for significantly altering elections in their clients favor." More at 
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/AKPD_Message_and_Media

So who is AKPD's client, APC or the people?
Or are the Nigerian masses no more than just another business venture for APC?

Ok so you have your Media firm to deceive the people, what next?

I have continuously asked this question and yet to get an answer from GMB supporters;  what punishment awaits GMb's party leaders and ex govs who have done incalculable financial damage to the country via nepotism, contract inflation, land grabbing, private jets purchases, stupendous wealth overnight etc.  Even GMB has been unable to answer.

Personally, I believe GMB wants to get into power first and then deal with them; being no fools either, these guys are waiting with the burdillon calculation.

If I am the Lion, and I know this man I am putting in power can turn on me and not only whittle my influence but also put me in jail what will I do since I'm not stupid?

Well the primary objective is to wrest power the next would be to seize that power once its wrested. 
How do you seize power in a democracy?
you impeach the president! 

Are you saying that cant be done? Ok how did General Buhari lose out as the head of state? He was outed in a palace coup without a shot fired in his defence!
  
If as a military man it was that easy to chase him out how easy would it be as a loner surrounded by wolves desperate to have access to the national coffers? 

Given Buhari's antecedents,  it would be mere weeks for him to commit impeachable offences and for a man described as having no friends amongst the people hoisting him up, then getting him out would be a walk in the park.

So this Monday,  watch out for who is announced as his running mate and know that that person will become your commander in  chief weeks after may 29 if GMB does win the election. 
I sincerely hope its not former governor Tinubu 

That is the bourdillon calculation for you!

Note too, I heard that Senator Tinubu might be Ambodes deputy,  hehehe, if she is then you just met the first female governor in Nigeria for Ambode will also fall to the bourdillon calculation.

To Tompolos warships,  just like Christians have nothing to fear about the implementation of sharia in the whole country as canvassed by General Buhari, I guess the rest of Nigeria has nothing to fear from the warship after all warships function on the sea, so we have nothing to fear.

And am I sure that even if the south south secede, APC has the plan to move the rest of the country forward since in the country they hired AKPD from, the landowners own the resources on the land; I wouldn't want 2015 to be about access to the oil in the south south I would want it to be about good governance as APC has been mouthing. 

 APC! change! 

"My watch" - Pa OBJ is as bad as those who import toothpicks

Between President Obasanjo and Segun Adeniyi both claiming to be patriots and loving Nigeria, well isn't it funny that both of them imported the books they want you to buy?

They both chose a publishing house that prints books abroad paying in dollars and then import same back into nigeria despite the numerous printing presses in our country?

Next time you read the numerous nonsense being published by our so called elites and self appointed leaders and you think they actually love the country, well they dont.
They are not patriotic nor do they care about you.

Abi why would customs be asked to seize the book published by president OBj if not that its imported?

They all fight during the day but drink and balance their books together at night!

http://leadership.ng/news/394365/obasanjo-book-publisher-play-hide-seek-security-agents

I hope a patriotic Nigerian makes an e copy and put it on the internet,  I'm sure not buying books filled with lies and half truth.

See below Segun Adeniyis glee as he talks about how he and Papa OBJ improverish the nation and cause a weak naira by importing books. Yet we blame people who import toothpicks, whats the difference please tell me?

http://www.thisdaylive.com/articles/obasanjo-------s-unguided-missiles/196346

"Since President Olusegun Obasanjo seems to have appropriated the title of Baba, I knew instantly who Egbosa was referring to but still wondered the nature of the response so I sought to know how. “In his coming book that Kachifo is publishing. Baba yab you no be small”, he added in Pidgin English before laughing.

Right there and then, I requested that I should be given a copy of the book the moment it came out. I believe I had a right to that because when the promo of my Yar’Adua book came out before the release in December 2011, Obasanjo had requested that he be given a copy the moment it arrived. And he was obliged with Kachifo CEO, Mr. Mukhtar Bakare, driving with a copy to Ota at midnight on the day the consignment arrived the country."



According to the publishers website, they love Nigeria too, hehehe


Kachifo Limited is an independent Nigerian publishing house set up in 2004 to tell our own stories. We are the publishers of Farafina Books, Prestige Books and Farafina Magazine until suspension of its publication in 2009. We have also established a non-profit trust, Farafina Trust, whose broad mission is to promote literature and literary skills in Africa.
Kachifo Limited aims to set high standards for editorial, conceptual and production quality in the Nigerian publishing industry.

Yeah right!

MUSLIM AND ANGRY….AT MUSLIMS – Opeyemi Oduwole

MUSLIM AND ANGRY….AT MUSLIMS – Opeyemi Oduwole

As a British-African Muslim that has worshiped at Friday Jumah services in a number of mosques in almost 2 dozens countries, I have encountered several appeal for donations for many charitable courses.  

Since 9/11, there had been upsurge in the number of appeal funds to help Muslims that are victims of the wars in Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon and more recently Syria. There are also many charity organisations that request for funds for the poor, needy and internally displaced people in the Middle East. Requests for aid to the people of Gaza has been perennial for as long as I could remember.

There are several verses in the Holy Quran that point to the importance of charity and alms-giving as one of the 5 main pillars of Islam but Chapter 2 verse 215 summarizes it by saying “Say, "Whatever you spend of good is [to be] for parents and relatives and orphans and the needy and the traveler. And whatever you do of good - indeed, Allah is Knowing of it."

I have pondered on this verse so many times and tried to see if there is any insinuation of any sort that gives the impression that ‘needy’ means ‘Arab needy’. And the reason for my pondering is the disturbing snobbery of the Islamic charity organisations towards the Ebola epidemic ravaging and savaging countries in West Africa. This outbreak of the Ebola virus has killed almost 8,000 people in such a short time and has been described by the WHO as the most disastrous natural disaster know to humanity since records began.

I personally believe that this number of about 8,000 deaths recorded may not be anywhere near accurate as it is a known fact that there is no reliable record keeping in this part of the world, coupled with the fact that it is reported that families of many victims of ebola kept the ailing and dead away from government and health authorities – hence there are many unrecorded cases and deaths. In my opinion, it wont be far fetched to put the the fatalities from the ebola epidemic at more than 15,000.

What amazes, annoys and infuriates me as a Briton, an African and ultimately a Muslim is that since this savaging outbreak, I have not come across one major Islamic charity organisation that has established or prioritised an appeal fund for the victims of the virus in West Africa. Since the outbreak of this epidemic about 8 months ago, I have had the opportunity of visiting 9 countries and worshiped in mosques for Friday Jumah services and not even on one occasion was I approached to give to the Ebola cause. More annoyingly, 4 of these countries were fellow African countries!!! I however saw posters and volunteers for the ‘usual suspects’ like Syria Appeal Fund, Palestine Appeal Fund etc.

The quran did not make any assertion whatsoever that Islamic aid should only go to the Arabs, nor did it say Muslims in the Middle East are above Muslims from other regions. In fact, the act of alms giving, according to the Quran, is devoid of colour, race, ethnicity and religion. Q2:215 clearly says ‘the needy’ and not ‘the middle-east needy’, nor the ‘muslim needy’. This brings me to the belief I have always held dear to my heart that we, as human, as muslims, as xtians, even as obatala/orunmila/ogun/sango followers have a common duty to give to the needy irrespective of where they hail from, what they look like or the faith they choose to follow.

I do hope that the very popular Islamic charity organisations like The Islamic Aid UK, The Red Crescent, Da’wah Foundation etc can, as a matter of urgency, make their presence felt in the global effort to curb this EVD that threatens our common existence. As this virus do not choose it victims based on colour, race or faith!!

The anger in me has made me resolved not to give a dime to the more 'popular' Islamic funds indefinitely, an action I have dutifully and regularly performed for years and this resolution of mine genuinely hurts me. However, I cant deny the fact that the Islamic world has snobbed the people of West Africa when we need them the most. 

For those that would love to give their widow's mite to the cause of Ebola eradication, I have added the following links for the UN's Global Ebola Response and Disasters Emergency Committee DEC's Ebola Crisis Appeal.

www.dec.org.uk

www.un.org/ebolaresponse/

FG Approves N9.2bn Contract For Purchase Of 750,000 Stoves, 18,000 Wonder-Bags

Now i know we have a useless old generation bent on destroying younger generations with their actions.

How else do you explain the use of 9.2bn naira to purchase stoves, supposed wonder stoves from a foreigner? Why cant we buy just one sample and produce our own here if its that dire?

In these days of looming austerity due to dwindling income.

Their first response was to say they would increase taxes, the taxes they dont pay!  we pay more taxes and the next important thing is 9.2bn for stoves?

like Olamide the musician would say, am I mad?!

Before Doyin okupe quotes patents, nigeria is not bound to obey patents filed in south africa because I know SA wont respect that done here. They said the country stand to gain 50 per cent subsidy of the price through the carbon credits that would be generated. Please who even understands what rubiish is being spewed? China that has smogs perpetually in their country are they concerned about carbon credits?

Why would a responsible government choose such a time for such monumental rubbish?  its as if they are goading us, seeing how far they can push us before we revolt.

Fellow Nigerians,  when are we going to stop these pigs feeding fat on the farms resources, they walk on two legs and tell us to walk on four, is this an animal farm?!

The stove wasnt invented by the south african afterall! see link

http://buni.tv/video/spark-africa-wonder-stove-saves-firewood-sierra-leone-episode-5/

what she is credited with is the wonder bag.

Moreover I watched a documentary years ago in which such a tech as wonder bag was used to slow cook food for hikers!

the wonder stove has been around since 2003 and was invented in sierraleone!  see video here! http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7hU8L3CsSvU

see what a wonderbag is and justify if we need waste money

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wonderbag

The 9.2bn stove is a scam,  resist it!

Dr. Goodluck Jonathan - The last Nigerian President?

2015 election myth or reality?

GEJ the last Nigerian president?

I have always been watching the Nigerian political scene but rarely commenting partly because I see a sea of selfish ambitions in garbs of service to the nation but focused on looting.

Even at that, I still believed there was going to be an election in 2015 especially with the vigor that pro Jonathan campaigners started the preparations for the 2015 presidential election using various groups.

I also watched as the North East slowly slipped a town at a time into absolute anarchy; when boko haram campaigned picked up after the death of President Musa Yaradua, I watched as stuffs we hear happening in far away countries started happening here. I naively believed a Nigerian could never be a suicide bomber it was the Arabs who could do such things until I started hearing of bomb blasts all over the north east and Abuja.

When it turned into a war, I had so much confidence in our soldiers to rout out these insurgents going by their track record of stopping the war in Liberia and Sierra Leone. I believed the army just didn't want to appear brutal but alas I was wrong!

Instead, the blame game started; as people died the politicians played the deaths for maximum political gains.  The religious bodies were not left out each group pointing accusing finger whilst ardent of all faiths got slaughtered.

Through this entire macabre din, the electoral dance began, not like it ever stopped but it picked up in tempo going higher daily.  Then reached a crescendo with the NASS brouhaha at which point I stopped! And viewed the whole system with my macroscope and realized, it looks like we are all just being taken for a huge ride, a long con; there can’t possibly be an actual plan for any presidential election to take place in 2015! Not with all these signs

Let’s go back to the days of SDP and NRC in which baba Maradona himself Gen IBB took us all on a merry go round of a phantom transition to civil rule.

I remember he first said people should form their parties which they did, after awhile he found an excuse, created two parties, drew up manifestos for both, built party offices throughout the country, organised primaries, there were even debates on national TV which culminated in the freest and fairest election in the history of Nigeria and a Yoruba man defeated Alhaji Tofa in his own state in the north!

Chief Abiola emerged the winner after 7 years of the long con only to die in prison because Gen. Babangida was actually taking us all on a ride! He planned for all to fail wasting resources to sell us that illusion.

 

Through this long ride, Chief Gani Fawehinmi was the lone voice who insisted and fought right from the start of the phantom transition saying Gen Gen. Babangida had no plans to leave power.

Ever since the aftermat1h of June 12, I haven’t seen Nigeria this tensed up over elections with the major opposition party threatening fire and brimstone and the ruling party using federal might it almost borders on impunity.

Do you see signs President Jonathan may have no plans for any presidential election holding in 2015 or is it just me reading meanings into this cacophony?

1.      1. Insurgency in the NE. The government body language towards the wanton bloodshed has been disappointing. Reports constantly stream out that soldiers are given orders to stand down when these insurgents invade. At other times soldiers lead the vanguard of people fleeing! We also get reports of soldiers ordered to leave areas hours before boko haram fighters strike! We also hear of poor motivation of our soldiers which means these men aren’t paid enough to encourage them put their life on the line despite the billions of dollars gone down the prosecution of this war.

We can divide that body language into two, that of the federal government and the state governments own. The state governments resisted the imposition of a state of emergency in their states to combat the threat early on, this I construed to be succinct support for the insurgents, even at a time, notable Nigerians called for amnesty and integration of these killers into the society, now we are all wiser.

The federal government on her own showed a government doing just barely enough to contain the insurgency leaving the area perpetually under siege. How will elections be conducted in these areas when a war is ongoing there?

Some will argue that the CIC effort is being sabotaged and say President Jonathan is weak, but his response when it comes to political affronts paints a totally different picture!

His political foes have so many bruises to show for their affronts, states brought down to their knees, titan governors forced out of PDP, of recent the violation of our hallowed NASS!

He possibly can’t be weak and strong at the same time which means whatever he is doing is by design!

So, Is there a design to keep Nigeria in a perpetual state of war and uncertainty which will make it impracticable to hold elections? 

See section 135 of the Nigerian constitution with focus on sub section 3.

135. (1) Subject to the provisions of this Constitution, a person shall hold the office of President until -

(a) when his successor in office takes the oath of that office;

(b) he dies whilst holding such office; or

(c) the date when his resignation from office takes effect;

or

(d) he otherwise ceases to hold office in accordance with the provisions of this Constitution.

(2) Subject to the provisions of subsection (1) of this section, the President shall vacate his office at the expiration of a period of four years commencing from the date, when -

(a) in the case of a person first elected as President under this Constitution, he took the Oath of Allegiance and the oath of office; and

(b) in any other case, the person last elected to that office under this Constitution took the Oath of Allegiance and oath of office or would, but for his death, have taken such Oaths.

(3) If the Federation is at war in which the territory of Nigeria is physically involved and the President considers that it is not practicable to hold elections, the National Assembly may by resolution extend the period of four years mentioned in subsection (2) of this section from time to time; but no such extension shall exceed a period of six months at any one time.

2.     2. INEC distribution of the permanent voter’s card. Despite the tens of billions of naira  gone down the coffers of INEC, the distribution of the PVC which is supposed to be used for elections just weeks from now has been dismal. Blurred pictures, myriads of complaint, slow distribution, lost data! So who will vote when more than half of registered voters can’t vote because they don’t have their voter’s card?

Yet within the next few weeks we are supposed to hit the polls, remember the constitution stipulates elections must be held between 60days to a minimum of 30days before hand over.  And all those registered to vote..., shall be entitled to vote.. (see sub section 5 of section 132 below)

See section 132 of the Nigerian constitution below

“132. (1) An election to the office of President shall be held on a date to be appointed by the Independent National Electoral Commission.

(2) An election to the said office shall be held on a date not earlier than sixty days and not later than thirty days before the expiration of the term of office of the last holder of that office.

(3) Where in an election to the office of President one of the two or more candidates nominated for the election is the only candidate after the close of nomination, by reason of the disqualification, withdrawal, incapacitation, disappearance or death of the other candidates, the Independent National Electoral Commission shall extend the time for nomination.

(4) For the purpose of an election to the office of President, the whole of the Federation shall be regarded as one constituency.

(5) Every person who is registered to vote at an election of a member of a legislative house shall be entitled to vote at an election to the office of President.”

To be continued

The Tambuwal debacle

Should  Hon.Tambuwal vacate his seat?

It was with amusement that I saw pictures of our honourable house members scaling the wall breaching security to get into the house, at that juncture I took no sides knowing the antics PDP could use to get at the former speaker. 

I later watched the video and saw what I see on Lagos streets, supposed government officials and bullion vans feeling like they are above the law driving dangerously like other road users don’t exist.

The speaker vehicle drove dangerously towards the access control that had been going on well before they came and the police reacted to the threat as the mob attempted to storm the building by locking the gate. What they did would have gotten an ordinary citizen shot.

Tambuwal identified himself as the speaker and demanded to be let in. the police ignored his request.

Which brings us to the question, having jumped ship from PDP to APC, is his seat legally vacant as per the constitution or can he keep it? As at when he identified himself as the speaker was he the speaker?

I am not a lawyer talk less a constitutional one but the section of the constitution that shows the answer is clear.

Section 68 of the Nigerian constitution states

68 (1) A member of the Senate or of the House of Representatives shall vacate his seat in the House of which he is a member if -

(a) He becomes a member of another legislative house.

(b) any other circumstances arise that, if he were not a member of the Senate or the House of Representatives, would cause him to be disqualified for election as a member;

(c) he ceases to be a citizen of Nigeria;

(d) he becomes President, Vice-President, Governor, Deputy Governor or a Minister of the Government of the Federation or a Commissioner of the Government of a State or a Special Adviser.

(e) save as otherwise prescribed by this Constitution, he becomes a member of a commission or other body established by this Constitution or by any other law.

(f) without just cause he is absent from meetings of the House of which he is a member for a period amounting in the aggregate to more than one-third of the total number of days during which the House meets in any one year;

(g) being a person whose election to the House was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected;

Provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored; or

(h) the President of the Senate or, as the case may be, the Speaker of the House of Representatives receives a certificate under the hand of the Chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission stating that the provisions of section 69 of this Constitution have been complied with in respect of the recall of that member.

(2) The President of the Senate or the Speaker of the House of Representatives, as the case may be, shall give effect to the provisions of subsection (1) of this section, so however that the President of the Senate or the Speaker of the House of Representatives or a member shall first present evidence satisfactory to the House concerned that any of the provisions of that subsection has become applicable in respect of that member.

(3) A member of the Senate or of the House of Representatives shall be deemed to be absent without just cause from a meeting of the House of which he is a member, unless the person presiding certifies in writing that he is satisfied that the absence of the member from the meeting was for a just cause.

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Going by the above section of the constitution, Tambuwal remains the speaker of the house until sub section 2 is applied in which a member of the house will present evidence of Tambuwals defection and then his seat declared vacant.

Pro APC people argue that Tambuwal can keep his seat citing paragraph G of sub section 1 with emphasis on the word “faction”.

We are tempted to ask another question, is there a faction in PDP? But on closer examination of this clause, what actually affects PDP in Tambuwal defection is the word “division” The right question to ask is if there is a division in PDP.

The faction refers to when two parties merged as in what happened in ACN and Tambuwal was a member of one of the factions that merged into APC!

Let’s therefore define what a faction is first. According to Wikipedia and the the free dictionary

A political faction is a group of individuals, such as a political party, a trade union, or other group with a common political purpose. A faction or political party may include fragmented sub-factions, “parties within a party," which may be referred to as power blocs, or voting blocs. Members of factions band together as a way of achieving these goals and advancing their agenda and position within an organization.

Operation of factions

In political organizations that are democratic in structure, factions rely heavily on securing enough votes to win important ballots. This process is sometimes referred to as “doing the numbers”. Having the numbers will allow the faction to push policies it supports and elect its members to powerful positions within the broader organization.

If one faction develops within an organization, there will usually be at least one other that develops in opposition to it. Opposing factions will try to match each other's level of organization and internal discipline, but will also engage in negotiations and trade-offs to ensure that the organization’s activities are not compromised and that every group has a chance to obtain at least some of its goals.

Key to the operation of an organized faction is the existence of a power base. This will typically be some office, division or branch of the broader organization over which the faction has effective control. Sometimes a power base may be an external or affiliated organization that is involved with the broader organization in some way.

A power base serves several key functions:

• It acts as a recruitment center for new members, and promotes homogeneity within the membership (crucial for maintaining factional cohesion);
• It can be used as an organizing center for factional events and activities;
• It functions as a springboard, advancing the career of selected factional members and allowing them to gain skills that will increase their effectiveness and clout.

Effects of factions

The existence of a factional system can have serious negative consequences for a political organization. If factional strife becomes intensive and public, the organization may suffer from perceptions of disunity. Taken one step further, if the conflict is particularly severe, it may cause ruptures within the organization that seriously impede its effectiveness, leading to break-up or collapse of the organization.

To avoid harm to the organization, factional operations are usually conducted under strong secrecy and with minimal public scrutiny. This, however, can lead to the proliferation of unethical behavior. Warfare between the factions may lead to tactics such as ballot box-stuffing, stack-outs, membership fraud, and other generally fraudulent conduct. Individuals who abandon a faction may be subject to intense personal vendettas where their former comrades go about sabotaging their careers. A climate of intense factional conflict can also motivate individuals to focus on attacking their factional enemies rather than furthering the broader organization.

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When we look at the definition of faction and the context in which the word along with "division" and "merger" was used in the constitution, its glaring that it means if there is a spilt in that political party such that we have two PDPs or a merger between ACN and CPC and others that formed APC.

As at the time of Tambuwals defection, there was no division within the PDP thus the argument that he retains his seat becomes moot.

Him running to court to get a judgment maintaining the status quo until the determination of his suit is a time wasting tactics done in bad faith by both him and the APC.

Asking the courts to define what a faction is a cheap and dishonorable act by Tambuwal trying to eat his cake and have it. 
Adjourning the house first then declaring his defection is also another dishonorable act a premeditated move that reeks of bad faith. It means he clearly knew what would follow once he announced his defection (as per sub section 2) and prevented the right and lawful thing from being done.

I was told by some of my group friends that PDP should head to court and i said, The failure of men to be Honorable is what leads to court cases. Hiding behind the court to twist a well known law doesn't paint you as law abiding citizen, it makes you a dishonorable person. For a party shouting on the roof tops how dear they hold the country it simply shows they really dont care about the country but wresting power for themselves.

Ironically as I was writing this piece, information came that the same APC who wants Tambuwal keep his seat after defection wants the opposite to happen in Ekiti state after some house members defected to PDP! This paints APC as a party so selfish they are ready to create a constitutional crisis where there is none all in a desperate attempt to further plunge the nation into unnecessary tension.

http://www.osundefender.org/?p=196032

Shamefully, APC has no case because the Ekiti reps were sponsored by ACN which has now merged to form APC! (Sub section 1 paragraph (g) clearly applies  to them!) and they get to retain their seats. APC know it but derive absolute pleasure in wasting tax payers money and love justice being delayed.

Whatever the outcome of the court case as concerns Tambuwal, APC has secured a dirty win by delaying election into Tambuwal's slot either the court ruling is in their favour or not.

I however trust our learned judges who rule based not only on written English but with their conscience and broad understanding on life.

I write as a neutral person in this matter i am not a member of any political party at this moment and in the nearest future